One week review of the hottest international oil m

2022-08-02
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A week's review of the international oil market (May 3 to May 9)

affected by the growth of U.S. crude oil inventory, international crude oil futures fell for six trading days from the end of April to the beginning of May. However, Nigeria, an important oil producing country in Africa, is geopolitically tense. It is expected that hurricanes will be active this summer. When shopping, we should not only focus on brands, which has made the international oil price continue to decline. However, US crude oil inventories surged, supply concerns eased, and international oil prices fell again after a brief rebound. U.S. gasoline inventories rose for the first time in 13 weeks, but still not enough to replenish inventories. Due to frequent refinery failures in the United States and cooperation in research on dual-use common technologies for military and civil products, the market is worried about gasoline supply. The average retail price of conventional gasoline in the United States has exceeded $3 per gallon

the geopolitics of oil producing countries is tense, and the crude oil production of Nigeria further declines. However, market participants believe that the recovery of refinery operating rate in the next few weeks will reverse the continuous decline of gasoline inventory in response to user demand, and mark the beginning of a substantial decline in crude oil prices. Mike Fitzpatrick, the vice president who has just joined MF global, said that a substantial correction of oil futures is under way, and further refinery information is needed to maintain the rise

stopping the purchase of strategic petroleum reserves also puts pressure on the market. The U.S. Department of energy said it would stop purchasing strategic reserve oil before the end of the summer driving season. The decision eased supply concerns. Some traders had worried that in June, the US government purchased an average of 133000 barrels of crude oil from the market every day, and this is the time when the refinery is upgraded to increase gasoline production to meet the summer driving oil peak

BNP Paribas said in a research report that the inventory in Cushing region has risen to more than 27million barrels, putting downward pressure on the price of crude oil for recent delivery

whether the international crude oil market is surplus or tight, oil producing countries and consumer countries have their own opinions. During the ministerial energy round table meeting in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, the president of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Mundi, said that the oil price is too high and the global inventory is too low. He said there was no increase in inventories and there was not enough oil on the market. But OPEC Secretary General retorted in Riyadh that the market is very stable now and there is no need to increase supply. Kuwait's oil minister al Sabah said that at present, the oil market is stable and no action is required. However, if there is a supply bottleneck, OPEC member states are ready to meet at any time. He also said that no supply bottleneck has been found at present

Qatar's oil minister al attiya also responded that the current global oil market is oversupplied. He said, "we ensure that the movement of the beam will not exceed the range, causing damage to the fixture or device. We believe that the market has been oversupplied. When we asked the customers if they need more crude oil, they said no, but gasoline and diesel."

after meeting with Qatar's energy minister, US energy minister Bodman had to admit that the global crude oil supply was abundant, but the global refining capacity was lacking. Bodman believes that there are many reasons why refineries will be at full capacity in the coming weeks. Including strong gasoline and diesel prices in Europe and the United States. Due to planned and unplanned shutdown, the operating rate of the refinery dropped to a low level of 83% at the beginning of this year, but now it is 89%, but it should reach more than 90% in the summer months with high demand. He said, "I am not saying that the world has been flooded with crude oil, but the current oil market is not a bottleneck."

David botel, President of Cameron hanwao, a Connecticut based trading advisory firm, said: "gasoline is the focus of concern relative to crude oil. Gasoline inventories will only rise when refineries increase production, which has not yet been realized. Although the operating rate of refineries has increased, it is not high enough."

according to the weekly report just released by the U.S. energy information administration, as of May 7, the average retail price of ordinary gasoline in the United States was $305.4 per gallon, up 8.3 cents from the previous week and 14.5 cents from the same period last year. This is the first time since the week of August 7 last year that the average weekly retail price of ordinary gasoline in the United States has exceeded $3

Jakob, an analyst at the Swiss based mattrix oil company, pointed out that during the period of Goldman Sachs commodity index transition, there will be downward pressure on the recently delivered West Texas Intermediate base crude oil. The US Department of energy revised the crude oil and gasoline inventory data in February. The continuous hostage incidents in Nigeria are the supporting factors of the crude oil market. However, this week, the pressure brought by the long-term premium of West Texas Intermediate base crude oil into the next period plays a leading role

the riots in Nigeria's oil producing countries continue to panic the oil market. The subsidiary of Eni in Nigeria was forced to close two oil fields with a total output of 65000 barrels due to armed attacks. At that time, six international workers on the company's tanker were kidnapped by militants 55 miles off the western coast of Nigeria

at 4 a.m. local time on May 7, nearby villagers occupied the drilling platform of abiteye oilfield. Chevron's Nigerian company recently shut down 42000 barrels per day of oil production in the Niger Delta. In the early morning of August 8, the Nigerian armed group "Niger Delta liberation movement" blew up three oil pipelines in Bayelsa state in southern Nigeria, two of which were located in Akasa region of the state and the other in Blas region. The attack will reduce local crude oil production by about 200000 barrels a day. The organization's statement threatened to launch more attacks on oil production and transportation facilities in the southern oil producing region of Nigeria in the future. The three pipelines attacked belonged to Eni company of Italy

A series of incidents have further worsened the security situation in Nigeria. The focados oilfield, which was originally planned to restart at the end of may or June, has become a problem again

the disasters brought by the hurricane in 2005 to the Gulf region of the United States are still fresh in people's memory. Next month, the United States will usher in a six-month hurricane season. Forecasters from Colorado State University and accuweather, the U.S. meteorological agency, said that this year, the chances of hurricanes hitting the U.S. Gulf region are greater than normal. This means that the hurricane has a greater possibility of landing, and we will usher in a more active hurricane season

according to the forecast of "tropical storm risk" weather forecast company in London, the United States will successively encounter 17 tropical storms during the hurricane season this year, of which 4 will be upgraded to hurricanes, which will also bring potential upward mobility to oil prices. Michael Davies, an analyst at suchton, a UK commodity and financial futures broker, said: "With the rise of sea level caused by global warming, we will encounter more and more hurricanes in the future. Therefore, this year is likely to become a hurricane active year.

according to the report of the U.S. Department of energy, last week, the U.S. crude oil inventory increased by 5.6 million barrels to 34120 barrels, 6.4% higher than the average level in the past five years; the gasoline inventory increased by 372000 barrels to 193.5 million barrels, 8% lower than the average level in the past five years, which is the highest level in the past 13 weeks First rise

according to the short term energy outlook of the US energy information administration in April, the global oil demand increase in 2007 was 1.4 million barrels per day, down 100000 barrels per day from the previous month's report. OPEC crude oil production in April was 30.21 million barrels per day, an increase of 50000 barrels per day over March; The crude oil output of the 10 member countries with OPEC quotas (excluding Iraq and Angola) was 26.55 million barrels per day, the same as that in March, but still 850000 barrels higher than the target output

Asian crude oil spot market: Chinese and Japanese refiners will enter the market, and the Asian crude oil market may be supported this week. Oman crude oil shipped in July was traded at 15 cents higher than the official price per barrel. There are still sellers who quote 20 cents higher than the official price. The seller's quotation for the light and high sulfur Murban crude oil shipped in July was about 30 cents higher than the official price of Abu Dhabi state owned oil company. As Indonesia's state-owned oil and gas mining company did not purchase the light and low sulfur crude oil in Southeast Asia that arrived in July in its bid in May, it may bring pressure to the spot market of low sulfur crude oil in the Asia Pacific region. In the past, Indonesian state-owned oil and gas mining companies were usually the main buyers of low sulfur crude oil in the Asia Pacific region

recent international oil market forecast: the US energy information administration predicts that the US WTI will average US $66 per barrel in the coming months. However, the agency also believes that the current WTI price is no longer a reference for other crude oils. It is pointed out that the average weighted purchase price of all crude oil purchased by U.S. refineries this summer is only 2 dollars lower than that of the same period last year

since this year, US gasoline inventory has not been effectively replenished, so it is expected that gasoline prices and crude oil prices will remain strong in the summer months. Last year, gasoline inventories in the United States increased above the average level, but gasoline prices still rose throughout the summer. However, there is no obvious sign of improvement in the current refinery failure, and the gasoline price in the United States may rise again in summer, which may drive the crude oil market to rise further

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